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The past week has produced two highs, and a deep low, for European democracy. The swearing-in of Donald Tusk as Polish premier after his electoral victory over the illiberal Law and Justice party was one high. Another was the EU’s agreement, fending off threats of a veto by Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, to start membership talks with Ukraine. But, in a low point, Orbán still blocked a four-year, €50bn EU aid deal for Kyiv, jeopardising its ability to fund its war with Russia. To ensure cash flows to Ukraine in 2024, and that the EU can remain an effective geopolitical player, it must find ways to tackle its “Orbán problem”.
过去一周，欧洲民主出现了两次高潮和一次低谷。唐纳德•图斯克(Donald Tusk)在选举中战胜了非自由主义的法律与正义党(Law and Justice party)，宣誓就任波兰总理，这是一个高潮。另一个高潮是欧盟顶住了匈牙利的欧尔班•维克多(Viktor Orbán)的否决威胁，同意与乌克兰开始成员国谈判。但是，一次低谷是，欧尔班仍然阻止了欧盟向基辅提供为期四年、总额达500亿欧元的援助协议，从而危及乌克兰为与俄罗斯的战争提供资金的能力。为确保乌克兰在2024年获得现金流，并使欧盟继续成为有效的地缘政治参与者，欧盟必须找到解决“欧尔班问题”的方法。
EU leaders should start by being clear that Orbán is motivated largely by money. He needs EU funds to keep flowing to Hungary, boosting its economy, to underpin his support. Billions of euros have been blocked since 2021 over rule of law concerns. Hungary’s premier was last week trying to use his posturing over Ukraine as leverage to unblock the frozen funds. He also knows eventual EU membership for Kyiv would shrink the funding pie for Hungary and other central European members.
欧盟领导人应首先明确，欧尔班的动机主要是金钱。他需要欧盟资金源源不断地流向匈牙利，促进其经济发展，以巩固他所得到的支持。自2021年以来，数十亿欧元的资金因法治问题而被冻结。匈牙利总理上周试图利用他在乌克兰问题上摆出的姿态作为筹码，以解冻被冻结的资金。他也知道，基辅最终加入欧盟将缩小匈牙利和其他中欧成员国的资金蛋糕。
Orbán has no desire to “leave the EU”, as he said in an interview. Instead, he wants to “take it over”, with like-minded allies. What was notable last week, however, was how far Hungary’s leader remains from that goal, especially after Poland’s change of direction, and despite advances by populist leaders and parties elsewhere. Indeed, on Ukraine he was entirely isolated. With 26 leaders against him, even Orbán seemed to feel too weak to wield his threatened double-veto, instead leaving the room while the rest voted to launch accession talks with Kyiv.
正如欧尔班在一次采访中所说，他并不想“离开欧盟”。相反，他希望与志同道合的盟友一起“接管欧盟”。然而，上周值得注意的是，匈牙利领导人离这一目标还有多远，尤其是在波兰改变方向之后，尽管其他地方的民粹主义领导人和政党取得了进展。事实上，在乌克兰问题上，他完全被孤立了。由于有26位领导人反对他，甚至连欧尔班似乎也感到力不从心，无法行使他威胁要行使的双重否决权，在其他领导人投票决定与基辅启动入盟谈判时离开了会场。
But Orbán demonstrated his capacity to be a “spoiler”. EU capitals should therefore double down on using the tools they have to curb misbehaviour by him, and others who might follow a similar path. Now that Budapest cannot rely on Warsaw shielding it, they should make clear that triggering Article 7, suspending Hungary’s EU voting rights, is again possible, even if some states are queasy about using this “nuclear option”.
但是，欧尔班展示了他作为“搅局者”的能力。因此，欧盟各国应加倍努力，利用现有工具遏制欧尔班以及其他可能走上类似道路的人的不当行为。既然布达佩斯不能再指望华沙的庇护，他们就应该明确表示，即使一些国家对使用这一“核选项”感到不安，启动第7条、暂停匈牙利的欧盟投票权也是可能的。
Having worked hard to create a more usable mechanism allowing funds to be blocked if member states go into reverse on democracy and rule of law, EU leaders should not flinch from wielding it. Orbán has now shown how this can be twisted into leverage against the EU. Although €10bn of funds were released last week after Brussels said concerns had been met, there should be no “dirty” deals to unfreeze further blocked money to Hungary without good reason, even for the sake of Ukraine. Doing so would emasculate the EU’s most credible enforcement tool.
欧盟领导人努力创建了一个更实用的机制，允许在成员国在民主和法治方面出现倒退时阻止资金流入，他们不应该在使用这一机制时退缩。欧尔班现在已经展示了如何将这一机制扭曲成为反对欧盟的筹码。尽管上周在布鲁塞尔表示，相关的一些担忧得到解决之后，100亿欧元的资金被释放，但在没有充分理由的情况下，不应该有任何“肮脏”交易来解冻进一步被冻结的匈牙利资金，即使是为了乌克兰。这样做将削弱欧盟最可信的执法工具。
On financing Kyiv, the EU must find another route — via an intergovernmental agreement of 26 states. This is messier, but can keep money flowing for now. Similar workarounds might be possible on some other policies — though not on enlargement where, as Orbán noted, the requirement for unanimity at every step creates multiple future chances for Hungary to block Ukraine’s progress.
在为基辅提供资金方面，欧盟必须另辟蹊径——通过 26 个国家的政府间协议。这样做比较麻烦，但目前可以保持资金流动。在其他一些政策上也可能有类似的变通办法，但在扩大欧盟问题上就不可能了，正如欧尔班所指出的，在扩大欧盟问题上，每一步都必须达成一致的要求为匈牙利今后阻挠乌克兰的进展创造了多种机会。
This latest episode has laid bare once again structural problems with EU decision-making that must be addressed now that further expansion to half a dozen or more new members is in prospect. More decisions need to be taken by qualified majority, and there needs to be greater scope for “coalitions of the willing” to press ahead with initiatives.
最近的这一事件再次暴露了欧盟决策的结构性问题，既然欧盟有望进一步扩大到五六个新成员，那么这些问题就必须得到解决。需要以特定多数做出更多决定，“意愿联盟”需要有更大的空间来推进各项倡议。
EU states are unlikely to relinquish the need for unanimity on taking in new members — though it might conceivably be limited to the start and end of the process. For now, EU leaders will have to use what means they can to coax and shame Orbán into not deploying his veto on Ukraine. For Europe’s wider stability, it is welcome that enlargement is back on the cards. But, as it grows, the EU cannot allow its functioning to be held hostage by a small minority.
欧盟国家不太可能放弃一致同意接纳新成员的要求——尽管可以想象这可能仅限于程序的开始和结束。目前，欧盟领导人将不得不采取一切可能的手段来哄骗欧尔班，让他因为羞愧而不在乌克兰问题上动用否决权。为了欧洲更广泛的稳定，扩大欧盟是值得欢迎的。但是，随着欧盟的发展壮大，欧盟不能允许其运作受到少数人的挟制。