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It is not particularly fashionable to point out when Donald Trump gets something right (whether accidentally or not). But for the record, back in 2021 he was right about crypto. Having two years earlier pointed out that crypto is “not money” and that its value is “based on thin air”, the former president said bitcoin “just seems like a scam”, suggested crypto was “a disaster waiting to happen”, and said “the bitcoins of the world” should be regulated “very, very high” [sic].
指出唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)在某些事情上是正确的（无论是偶然还是有意）并不特别时髦。但是，值得记录的是，早在2021年，他就对加密货币的问题是正确的。两年前，他指出加密货币“不是货币”，其价值“基于虚无”，这位前总统表示比特币“似乎只是一个骗局”，暗示加密货币是“一场等待发生的灾难”，并表示“世界上的比特币”应该受到“非常非常高”的监管。
That was less than a year before the world of crypto imploded spectacularly. From May 2022 onwards, a series of exchanges, tokens and other crypto projects collapsed in quick succession, wiping out tens of billions of dollars in supposed “value” overnight. Crypto prices and the market for “NFTs” — a type of digital token that is just as worthless as any other but pretends to be otherwise — tanked. Regulators had not only been failing to regulate crypto “very very high”; they had been asleep at the wheel. In December of that year, crypto’s most notorious criminal, the man known as SBF, was arrested on charges of fraud and conspiracy that he would later be given a 25-year prison sentence for.
那是在加密货币世界惨败的不到一年前。从2022年5月开始，一系列的交易所、代币和其他加密项目相继崩溃，一夜之间摧毁了数百亿美元的所谓“价值”。加密货币价格和“非同质化代币”（一种与其他任何代币一样毫无价值但假装有价值的数字代币）的市场暴跌。监管机构不仅未能对加密货币进行“非常非常高”的监管，而且一直在疏忽职守。当年12月，加密货币界最臭名昭著的罪犯SBF因欺诈和阴谋罪被捕，后来被判处25年监禁。
But Trump, alas, is no longer right about crypto. As the market recovered, he suddenly went from “not a fan” to seeming positively enamoured.
但遗憾的是，特朗普对加密货币的看法已经不再正确。随着市场的复苏，他突然从“不是粉丝”变得似乎非常迷恋。
He vowed last month to stop Joe Biden’s crusade to crush crypto and said that he would support the right to self-custody — technical language that sounds very unlike something Trump would have come up with himself. “To the nation’s 50mn crypto holders I say this,” he told a crowd at a libertarian convention. “I will keep [Democratic senator] Elizabeth Warren and her goons away from your bitcoin.”
上个月，他发誓要阻止乔•拜登(Joe Biden)粉碎加密货币的行动，并表示他将支持自我保管的权利——这听起来很不像特朗普自己会说的话。他在一次自由主义者大会上对观众说：“对于全国5000万加密货币持有者，我要说：我将让伊莉萨白•沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)和她的手下远离你们的比特币。”
It sounded suspiciously like Trump had been having some deep and meaningfuls with the crypto industry. Indeed, a couple of weeks ago he hosted a group of bitcoin miners and industry executives at his private members club/permanent residence Mar-a-Lago. One of those present, the CEO of BTC Inc, told CNBC that “as an industry we are committed to raising over $100mn and turning out more than 5,000,000 voters for the Trump re-election effort”. You can see why Trump might have found their arguments so persuasive.
听起来特朗普似乎与加密货币行业进行了一些深入而有意义的交流。事实上，几周前，他在他的私人会员俱乐部/永久住所海湖庄园接待了一群比特币矿工和行业高管。其中一位在场的人，BTC Inc的首席执行官告诉CNBC，“作为一个行业，我们致力于筹集超过1亿美元，并为特朗普的连任努力争取超过500万选民的支持”。你可以理解为什么特朗普可能会对他们的论点如此有说服力。
There is not even any kind of an attempt to hide the influence-buying; quite the opposite in fact. On Tuesday, the incumbent congressman for New York Jamaal Bowman was defeated in the most expensive primary election in the Democratic party’s history. A vocal critic of Israel, who lost to a pro-Israel rival, he had also voted against pro-crypto bills. Afterwards, Tyler Winklevoss — who along with his twin brother Cameron runs the Gemini crypto exchange — gloated on X: “Politicians everywhere need to understand that this is what happens when you pick a fight with the crypto army.”
甚至没有任何试图掩盖影响力购买的行为；事实上恰恰相反。周二，纽约现任国会议员贾马尔•鲍曼(Jamaal Bowman)在民主党历史上最昂贵的初选中被击败。作为以色列的激烈批评者，他输给了一个亲以色列的对手，他还投票反对支持加密货币的法案。之后，与他的双胞胎兄弟卡梅伦一起经营双子座(Gemini)加密货币交易所的泰勒•温克尔沃斯(Tyler Winklevoss)在X上洋洋得意地说：“世界各地的政治家们需要明白，当你与加密货币军团对抗时，就会发生这种情况。”
Last week, the Winklevoss twins each gave $1mn to the Trump campaign (a portion of which has since been refunded for exceeding maximum individual contribution rules), calling him the “pro-crypto” choice. They have also donated $4.9mn to a pro-crypto super Pac — an independent fundraising committee that can receive unlimited funds from individuals, companies and other groups — named “Fairshake”. This has already raised more than $177mn, second only to the “Make America Great Again” super Pac, with just over $178mn.
上周，温克莱沃斯兄弟各自向特朗普竞选团队捐赠了100万美元（其中一部分因超过个人最高捐款规定而被退还），称他为“支持加密货币”的选择。他们还向一个名为“Fairshake”的支持加密货币的超级政治行动委员会捐赠了490万美元，这是一个可以接受个人、公司和其他团体无限资金的独立筹款委员会。该委员会已经筹集了超过1.77亿美元，仅次于“让美国再次伟大”(Make America Great Again)超级政治行动委员会的1.78亿美元。
Fairshake was one of the big contributors to Tuesday’s New York primary, spending over $2mn on ads targeting Bowman. Along with the Winklevii, a number of other crypto billionaires and their firms have contributed huge sums to Fairshake, including crypto firm Ripple, which has donated a tidy $45mn; crypto exchange Coinbase, with just over $45mn; and “techno-optimist” Marc Andreessen and business partner Ben Horowitz, who between them and their business have donated almost $70mn.
Fairshake是周二纽约初选的主要捐助者之一，投入超过200万美元用于针对鲍曼的广告。除了Winklevii之外，还有其他一些加密货币亿万富翁及其公司向Fairshake捐赠了巨额资金，包括加密货币公司Ripple捐赠了整整4500万美元；加密货币交易所Coinbase，捐赠略超4500万美元；以及“技术乐观主义者”马克•安德里森(Marc Andreessen)和他的商业伙伴本•霍洛维茨(Ben Horowitz)，他们和他们的公司共捐赠了近7000万美元。
According to data compiled by AdImpact, Fairshake and its affiliate pro-crypto super Pacs, “Defend American Jobs” and “Protect Progress”, have already spent more than $37mn on ads in the primaries. Many of the crypto-friendly candidates they back have won their respective House and Senate races.
根据AdImpact、Fairshake及其附属的支持加密货币的超级政治行动委员会“Defend American Jobs”和“保护进步”(Protect Progress)编制的数据，他们在初选中已经在广告上花费了超过3700万美元。他们支持的许多亲加密货币的候选人赢得了各自的众议院和参议院选举。
We should be very concerned indeed about the influence and scale of this rapidly growing crypto lobby. Apart from anything else, the lobbyists do not represent the interests of America’s crypto holders. Regulators are not going after retail investors, but the crypto firms whose founders have made billions by creaming off profits from those retail investors.
我们确实应该非常关注这个迅速增长的加密货币游说团体的影响力和规模。除此之外，这些游说者并不代表美国加密货币持有者的利益。监管机构的目标不是散户投资者，而是那些从散户投资者那里赚取了数十亿美元利润的加密货币公司的创始人。
Their allegiance to politicians looks similarly uneven. And the idea that a group of bitcoin executives can provide Trump with 5mn voters is a farce that even he must be able to see through.
他们对政客的忠诚度看起来同样参差不齐。而认为一群比特币高管能为特朗普带来500万选民的想法，即使是特朗普自己也应该能看穿这场闹剧。