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What impact will Donald Trump’s second coming have upon the world? The world is unpredictable. Trump is also unpredictable. His first presidency transformed the US and the world. His second is likely to have a deeper impact.
唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的“第二次降临”将给世界带来什么样的影响？世界是不可预测的。特朗普也是不可预测的。他的第一个总统任期改变了美国和世界。第二任期很可能产生更深远的影响。
“From this day on,” Trump said in his inaugural address, “the United States of America will be a free, sovereign and independent nation.” We are so used to such expressions of self-pity from him and those around him that they have (almost) ceased to startle. Yet he is speaking of the world’s most powerful country, which has been at the forefront of innovation for one and a half centuries, and has shaped the world we live in. What on earth has prevented the US from being a free, sovereign and independent nation? The answer, it seems, is self-imposed obligations and voluntarily accepted constraints on its own power. Now, he suggests, the US will do whatever it wants. The US ceases to have pretensions to moral leadership: it proclaims itself another great power under the old motto: “might makes right”.
特朗普在就职演说中说：“从今天起，美利坚合众国将成为一个自由、具有主权和独立的国家。”我们已经习惯了他和他身边人这种自怨自艾的表达方式，以至于（几乎）不再感到惊愕。然而，他说的是世界上最强大的国家，一个半世纪以来，这个国家一直走在创新的前沿，塑造了我们生活的这个世界。究竟是什么阻止了美国成为一个自由、具有主权和独立的国家？答案似乎是自愿承担的义务和自愿接受的对自身权力的限制。他认为，现在，美国将为所欲为。美国不再自诩为道德领袖：它宣称自己是以“强权即公理”这一古老信条为准则的另一个大国。
How does the world view this event? In “Alone in a Trumpian World”, the European Council on Foreign Relations has just published the results of surveys of public opinion across the world. They are fascinating. The people most disturbed by Trump’s second coming are citizens of its closest allies. Only 22 per cent of citizens of the EU, 15 per cent of the British and 11 per cent of South Koreans think his return is a good thing for their country. Meanwhile, 84 per cent of Indians, 61 per cent of the people of Saudi Arabia, 49 per cent of Russians and 46 per cent of the Chinese think it is good for their country. (See charts.)
世界如何看待这一事件？欧洲对外关系委员会刚刚在名为《在特朗普的世界孤独无助》的报告中公布了对全球民意的调查结果。这些结果非常有趣。对特朗普的强势回归感到最不安的是其最亲密盟国的公民。只有22%的欧盟公民、15%的英国人和11%的韩国人认为特朗普的回归对他们的国家是件好事。与此同时，84%的印度人、61%的沙特人、49%的俄罗斯人和46%的中国人认为对他们的国家来说是好事。(见图表）
This, suggests the report, signals “the publics’ embrace of a much more transactional world”. Yet, for close US allies it marks the end of the bonds of trust on which they rely. They can be free-riders on US power no longer. Maybe that serves them right. But this is about more than their mere dependence. Postwar Europeans really believed in the “liberal international order”. For them, its disappearance is a huge disappointment. The so-called “global south” mostly never did and so is more comfortable with Trump’s transactional approach.
报告认为，这表明“公众对一个更容易做交易的世界的欣然接受”。然而，对于美国的亲密盟友来说，这标志着他们所依赖的信任纽带的终结。他们再也不能搭美国权力的便车了。也许这是他们自作自受。但其实他们不是只想着依靠谁。战后的欧洲人真的相信“自由国际秩序”。对他们来说，它的消失是一个巨大的失望。所谓的“全球南方”大多从未相信过，因此对特朗普的交易型做法更为适应。
In two important areas — trade and the global environment — Trump’s approach will create special challenges. In the former, there was indeed a liberal order, built around global institutions that promoted trade liberalisation and provided substantial stability to the trade policy environment. This was of particular importance to trade-dependent small economies. As a result, the ratio of trade in goods to world output rose from 5 per cent at the end of the second world war to 15 per cent at the end of the cold war and 25 per cent on the eve of the global financial crisis. Since then it has stagnated.
在贸易和全球环境这两个重要领域，特朗普的做法将带来特殊的挑战。在前者中，确实存在一个围绕全球机构建立的自由秩序，这些机构促进了贸易自由化，并为贸易政策环境提供了基本的稳定。这对依赖贸易的小型经济体尤为重要。结果是，货物贸易占世界产出的比例从第二次世界大战结束时的5%上升到冷战结束时的15%，并在全球金融危机爆发前夕上升到25%。自那以来便停滞不前。
How much damage will the tariff wars launched by Trump do? Trade has collapsed before. Will it do so again? Trump has the idea (one of his many silly ones) that foreigners will pay his tariffs. In fact, Americans will: he is not just a bully, but a stupid one. Pity poor Canada and Mexico. How then should victims respond? Retaliation, argues Harvard’s Dani Rodrik, is costly to those who embrace it. So, be cautious.
特朗普发起的关税战将造成多大的破坏？贸易以前也崩溃过。它会再次崩溃吗？特朗普的想法（他的众多愚蠢想法之一）是外国人将为他的关税买单。事实上，美国人将买单：他不仅是个霸道者，还是个愚蠢的霸道者。可怜的加拿大和墨西哥。那么，受害者应该如何应对呢？哈佛大学的达尼•罗德里克(Dani Rodrik)认为，报复对乐意采纳的国家来说代价高昂。所以，要谨慎。
A second crucial area is climate change. This, say Maga Republicans, is a hoax. So, Trump declares that “we will drill, baby, drill”. In 2024, according to Nasa, global temperatures were 1.28C above its 1951-80 baseline, the highest ever recorded. Atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ continue to rise. So, it is to be “burn, baby, burn”. This indifference to the fate of the planet could prove devastating. That, too, creates huge concerns for the rest of the world.
第二个关键领域是气候变化。Maga共和党人称这是一个骗局。因此，特朗普宣布“我们将钻吧，宝贝，钻吧”。根据美国国家航空航天局的数据，2024年全球气温比其1951-80年基线高出1.28摄氏度，为有记录以来的最高值。大气中的二氧化碳浓度继续上升。因此，这将变成“烧吧，宝贝，烧吧”。这种对地球命运的漠不关心可能会带来毁灭性后果。这也给世界其他地区造成了巨大的担忧。
Meanwhile, will King Donald be able to bask in an American economic renaissance? It is unlikely, not least because the economy he has inherited is very far indeed from the disaster he ceaselessly proclaims it to be. On the contrary, the US economy has far outperformed its peers since the pandemic. In its January World Economic Outlook Update, the IMF states that “growth is projected to be at 2.7 per cent in 2025”. This is 0.5 percentage points higher than in its October forecast and a rate other high-income economies can only dream of. Trump should thank Joe Biden for this bequest.
与此同时，“国王唐纳德”能沐浴在美国经济复兴的喜悦中吗？不太可能，尤其是因为他所继承的经济的确与他反复宣称的灾难相去甚远。相反，自新冠疫情以来，美国经济的表现远远优于其他发达国家。国际货币基金组织在1月的《世界经济展望更新》中指出，“预计2025年的增长率将达到2.7%”。这比其10月时的预测高出0.5个百分点，是其他高收入经济体梦寐以求的增速。特朗普应该感谢乔•拜登的这份遗赠。
Given how good things are, the easiest way from here is down. In the short to medium run, the combination of a persistently loose fiscal policy with wild deregulation, the tariffs and the mass expulsion of immigrants is likely to reignite inflation. That would then trigger a destabilising conflict between the president and the Federal Reserve. Combined with a new bout of financial deregulation, this could trigger another financial crisis. This, in turn, would cause the collapse of a historically highly valued stock market, the one metric Trump cares about. Moreover, Trump inherits a fiscal deficit forecast by the Congressional Budget Office at 6.2 per cent of GDP this year, with debt in the hands of the public at 100 per cent and rising sharply. This is an unsustainable path. The hope seems to be that massive spending cuts will close the gap. But these will not be big enough and would come at the expense of his political supporters. Perhaps, in his second term, he no longer cares. But they surely will.
鉴于形势如此之好，最容易发生的就是掉落。从短期到中期来看，持续宽松的财政政策与疯狂放松管制、关税和大规模驱逐移民相结合，很可能会重新引发通胀。这将引发总统与美联储之间破坏稳定的冲突。再加上新一轮的放松金融监管，这可能会引发新一场金融危机。这反过来又会导致估值达到历史高点的股市崩盘，而这正是特朗普所关心的指标之一。此外，根据美国国会预算办公室的预测，特朗普继承的财政赤字今年将达到国内生产总值的6.2%，公众手中的债务将达到100%，而且还在急剧上升。这是一条不可持续的道路。当局似乎希望通过大规模削减开支来弥补缺口。但削减的规模将不能足够大，而且还会以牺牲他的政治支持者为代价。也许，在他的第二个任期，他不再在乎。但他们肯定会在乎。
Trump is unpredictable. Maybe, he will deliver a just peace in Ukraine and the Middle East. Maybe, he will put most of his threats and promises in the Oval Office waste paper basket, bask in his status and leave his country and the world in good shape. Substantial damage to the western alliance, world trade, the global environment, and US and global institutions seems more likely. Yet he proclaimed, in this speech, that: “My proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier. That’s what I want to be.” It’s what we all want him to be, too.
特朗普是不可预测的。也许，他将在乌克兰和中东实现公正的和平。也许，他会把自己大部分的威胁和承诺扔进椭圆形办公室的废纸篓，享受自己的地位，让他的国家和世界保持良好的状态。对西方联盟、世界贸易、全球环境以及美国和全球机构造成巨大破坏的可能性似乎更大。然而，他在就职演说中宣称：“我最值得骄傲的遗产将是成为一个和平缔造者和团结者。我想成为这样的人。”我们也都希望他成为这样的人。