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The IMF has approved the disbursement of more than $1.1bn to Pakistan, reviving a stalled $7bn assistance package expected to help stave off default despite a severe economic crunch and devastating floods.
国际货币基金组织(IMF)已批准向巴基斯坦提供逾11亿美元援助，恢复了一项停滞不前的70亿美元援助计划。该计划有望帮助巴基斯坦避免违约，尽管该国面临严重的经济危机和毁灭性的洪水。
The IMF’s board in Washington authorised the expenditure after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government introduced austerity measures, including sharply increasing domestic fuel prices.
在巴基斯坦总理谢赫巴兹·谢里夫(Shehbaz Sharif)的政府出台紧缩措施，包括大幅提高国内燃料价格之后，位于华盛顿的国际货币基金组织理事会批准了这笔支出。
“The formal resumption of an IMF program is a major step forward in our efforts to put Pakistan’s economy back on track,” Sharif wrote on Twitter.
谢里夫在Twitter上写道：“正式恢复国际货币基金组织的一项计划，是我们努力让巴基斯坦经济重回正轨的重要一步。”
Antoinette Sayeh, deputy managing director and acting chair of the IMF’s executive board, said maintaining the reform measures would be crucial.
IMF副总裁兼执行董事会代理主席安托瓦内特•萨耶(Antoinette Sayeh)表示，维持这些改革措施至关重要。
“Steadfast implementation of corrective policies and reforms remain essential to regain macroeconomic stability, address imbalances and lay the foundation for inclusive and sustainable growth,” she said, including strengthening governance at state-owned enterprises.
“坚定不移地实施纠正性政策和改革对于恢复宏观经济稳定、解决失衡问题以及为包容性和可持续增长奠定基础仍然至关重要，”她说，包括加强国有企业的治理。
But the unpopular austerity measures have proved politically perilous at a tumultuous time for the country of 220mn. Inflation has soared, with a basket of “sensitive” food and fuel prices last week rising 45 per cent from a year earlier. Flooding has killed more than 1,000, affected more than 30mn people and destroyed rice and cotton crops.
但事实证明，在这个拥有2.2亿人口的国家陷入动荡之际，不受欢迎的紧缩措施在政治上是危险的。通胀飙升，一篮子“敏感”食品和燃料价格上周同比上涨45%。洪水已造成1000多人死亡，3000多万人受灾，摧毁了水稻和棉花作物。
Sharif’s arch-rival Imran Khan, who was ousted as prime minister in April as the economic crisis was brewing, has surged in popularity and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party has held raucous rallies pushing for immediate elections.
谢里夫的主要竞争对手伊姆兰•汗(Imran Khan)的支持率飙升，他领导的巴基斯坦正义运动党(Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf)举行了声势浩大的集会，敦促立即举行选举。今年4月，汗在经济危机酝酿之际被赶下台。
The government hopes that financial assistance from the IMF, as well as China and Saudi Arabia, will buy time for inflation to ease ahead of polls, which must be held by the second half of next year.
政府希望来自国际货币基金组织以及中国和沙特阿拉伯的财政援助，将为通胀在明年下半年选举前得到缓解赢得时间。
“I could see why people would not be so enthusiastic but my take is this: If I’d let this country default — two or three months ago it would have defaulted — things would have been much worse,” Miftah Ismail, Pakistan’s finance minister, told the Financial Times in an interview.
巴基斯坦财政部长米夫塔•伊斯梅尔(Miftah Ismail)在接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示：“我能理解为什么人们不会这么热情，但我的看法是：如果我让这个国家违约——两三个月前它就会违约——情况会糟糕得多。”
The government can now “show the people of Pakistan that we are competent, that we know how to deliver,” he said, speaking before the disbursement had been finalised. “People will understand . . . that PTI had brought us to the brink of default and we saved them. But certainly, the economy has to pick up.”
政府现在可以“向巴基斯坦人民展示，我们有能力，我们知道如何交付，”他表示，“人们会理解……PTI把我们带到了违约的边缘，而我们救了他们。但毫无疑问，经济必须复苏。”
Pakistan is one of a number of countries facing acute economic distress following the surge in global prices after the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Among South Asia countries, Sri Lanka defaulted in May and Bangladesh and Nepal are struggling.
大流行和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰导致全球价格飙升，巴基斯坦是众多面临严重经济困境的国家之一。在南亚国家中，斯里兰卡在5月份违约，孟加拉国和尼泊尔正在苦苦挣扎。
Pakistan’s IMF programme, one of a dozen since the 1980s, was negotiated in 2019 under Khan, but stalled multiple times as his government resisted demands to implement unpopular spending cuts. After Monday’s announcement, the IMF is set to provide about $4bn to Pakistan over the coming year.
巴基斯坦的IMF项目是自上世纪80年代以来的12个项目之一，于2019年在汗的领导下谈成，但由于他的政府拒绝实施不受欢迎的开支削减要求，该项目多次陷入停滞。在周一的声明之后，IMF将在未来一年向巴基斯坦提供约40亿美元。
But Islamabad’s external debt obligations have surged, with repayments for the financial year rising to $24bn from about $14bn two years ago, according to research firm Macro Economic Insights.
但研究公司宏观经济观察(Macro Economic Insights)的数据显示，伊斯兰堡的外债债务激增，本财年的偿还额从两年前的约140亿美元增至240亿美元。
Pakistani officials also expect Saudi Arabia to renew a $3bn central bank deposit, and Qatar and the UAE to invest about $3bn and $1bn, respectively, though analysts warned that the timing of those outlays remained unclear.
巴基斯坦官员还预计，沙特阿拉伯将续存30亿美元的央行存款，卡塔尔和阿联酋将分别投资约30亿美元和10亿美元，但分析师警告称，这些支出的时间仍不清楚。
The lending pledges have done little to stem frustration among Pakistanis. “Life has become extremely expensive,” said Osama Abbassi, a cook in Islamabad and father of six. “I cook food for others which I can just not afford for my family.”
贷款承诺并没有消除巴基斯坦人的沮丧情绪。“生活变得极其昂贵，”伊斯兰堡的一名厨师、六个孩子的父亲奥萨马·阿巴西(Osama Abbassi)说。“我为别人做饭，但我养不起我的家人。”
The worst floods in decades have complicated the economic outlook, with hundreds of thousands of people in Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, three of Pakistan’s four provinces, displaced because of the torrential rain.
几十年来最严重的洪灾使经济前景复杂化，巴基斯坦四个省份中的三个信德省、俾路支省和开伯尔-普赫图赫瓦省的数十万人因暴雨而流离失所。
Akram Khan fled his village in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa for Islamabad with his family last week. “Overnight, rain deluged our entire home,” he said. “We barely escaped.”
Akram Khan和他的家人上周从开伯尔-普赫图赫瓦的村庄逃到了伊斯兰堡。“一夜之间，大雨淹没了我们整个家，”他说，“我们差点没有逃出来。”
Authorities said the floods could hurt the country’s ability to bounce back, and have called for international aid, warning that the damage to crops could stoke food inflation. “This is going to really hurt us,” Ismail said.
当局说，洪水可能会损害该国的恢复能力，并呼吁国际援助，警告对农作物的破坏可能会加剧粮食价格上涨。伊斯梅尔说：“这真的将伤害到我们。
Investors also remain wary. While sovereign bonds have rebounded from lows since Sharif’s government announced a preliminary IMF agreement last month, equities and the rupee remain volatile.
投资者也保持警惕。尽管自谢里夫政府上月宣布与IMF达成初步协议以来，主权债券已从低点反弹，但股市和卢比仍在波动。
Sakib Sherani, head of Macro Economic Insights, argued that despite the IMF deal, rising debt obligations meant Pakistan may yet be forced into debt reprofiling with the IMF. “We have a hump coming up for the next few years in our external debt repayments,” he said.
宏观经济观察负责人萨基布•谢拉尼(Sakib Sherani)认为，尽管与IMF达成了协议，但不断增加的债务义务意味着巴基斯坦可能还会被迫向IMF重新申报债务。他说：“在未来几年，我们的外债偿还会出现一个驼峰，”他说。
Sharif’s government wants time for its economic strategy to deliver results before calling elections, but critics said that prolonging the political uncertainty would hamper the recovery.
谢里夫政府希望在举行选举之前有时间让其经济战略取得成果，但批评人士说，延长政治不确定性将阻碍经济复苏。
In opposition, Khan has mobilised his base with mass rallies that have inflamed political tensions. The former prime minister is on bail after police this month charged him with terrorism-related offences for allegedly threatening officials in one of his speeches.
作为反对派，汗动员他的支持者举行大规模集会，加剧了政治紧张局势。这位前总理在本月被警方指控犯有与恐怖主义有关的罪行，因为他被指控在一次演讲中威胁官员，目前正在保释中。
“Economic stability in Pakistan is now linked with political stability . . . If I were an investor in this country, I would think twice”, said Ashfaque Hasan Khan, a former member of the PTI government’s economic advisory council. “The only solution is a free, fair and transparent election as soon as possible.”
“巴基斯坦的经济稳定现在与政治稳定联系在一起……如果我是这个国家的投资者，我会三思而后行。”PTI政府经济顾问委员会前成员Ashfaque Hasan Khan表示，“唯一的解决办法是尽快举行自由、公正和透明的选举。”
Sharif’s government has argued that elections would serve only to further destabilise the recovery. “Give us a few months,” Ismail said. “Things will get better, but I understand they’re very difficult right now.”
谢里夫政府认为，选举只会进一步破坏经济复苏。伊斯梅尔说：“给我们几个月的时间。“情况会好转的，但我知道现在非常困难。”
But for victims of the flooding, many of whom have lost everything, there is little to look forward to. Khan showed a photo on his phone of a party two weeks ago at his no- abandoned house to mark the birth of his son. That would be, he said through tears, “our last celebration ever”.
但是对于失去了一切的洪水受害者来说，没有什么可期待的。汗在手机上展示了一张两周前在他还未废弃的房子里举行的派对的照片，以纪念他儿子的出生。他流着泪说，那将是“我们最后一次庆祝”。