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It is time to end the “fever”. That was how France’s president Emmanuel Macron explained his stunning decision on Sunday to dissolve the National Assembly and call snap legislative polls after the far right won a crushing victory in European parliamentary elections. His pro-EU centrist alliance limped in to a distant second place.
是时候结束这种“狂热”了。这就是法国总统埃马纽埃尔•马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)周日做出的解散国民议会(National Assembly)并提前举行立法选举的惊人决定的解释。此前，极右翼在欧洲议会选举中获得压倒性胜利。他的亲欧盟中间派联盟勉强排在第二位。
Before this weekend, France’s reckoning with the far right was scheduled for 2027 when Macron steps down. The campaign of Marine Le Pen, leader of the Rassemblement National, to succeed him as president was looking increasingly unstoppable — but still years away. Now that reckoning, with grave implications for France’s democracy and the future of Europe, will come in less than a month.
在上周末之前，法国对极右翼的清算原本定于2027年马克龙下台之时。国民联盟(Rassemblement National)领导人玛丽娜•勒庞(Marine Le Pen)为接替马克龙担任总统而开展的竞选活动看起来越来越势不可挡，但仍需数年时间。现在，这场对法国民主和欧洲未来具有严重影响的清算将在不到一个月的时间内到来。
Macron’s snap election is an extraordinarily risky gamble. His intention appears to be to shake French voters out of their feverish delusions about what the far right would be like in power. The choice between France’s mainstream parties and a nationalist, Eurosceptic, anti-immigrant group whose policies would plunge the country into conflict with the EU ought to be an obvious one. The French may indeed balk at installing an RN government. But too many are bitterly disillusioned with the other parties and contemptuous of Macron for comfort.
马克龙的提前选举是一场异常冒险的赌博。他的意图似乎是要让法国选民从对极右翼执政的狂热幻想中清醒过来。在法国主流政党和一个民族主义者、欧洲怀疑论者、反移民团体之间做出选择应该是显而易见的。法国人可能确实不愿意建立一个国民联盟政府。但有太多法国人对其他党派失望透顶，对马克龙嗤之以鼻，令人无法安心。
A second line of defence is to persuade the other parties to strike electoral pacts to maximise the chances of defeating RN candidates. But Macron has left precious little time for party leaders to thrash out a deal. The president has repeatedly invoked the need to uphold the cordon sanitaire against the far right at all costs, while sometimes neglecting it himself, as in the last parliamentary elections in 2022. He has also done much to demolish France’s traditional centrist parties, although they also have themselves to blame for their fading popularity. They are, understandably, deeply sceptical of his “après moi le déluge” approach.
第二道防线是说服其他党派达成选举协议，以最大限度地增加击败国民联盟候选人的机会。但马克龙留给政党领袖们达成协议的时间已经不多了。总统一再强调必须不惜一切代价维护针对极右翼的防卫圈，但有时他自己却忽略了这一点，比如在2022年的上届议会选举中。他还不遗余力地摧毁法国传统的中间派政党，尽管这些政党也要为自己的声望下降承担责任。他们自然对他“我死之后，哪怕洪水滔天”的做法深表怀疑。
An unspoken part of Macron’s gamble is the prophylactic effect: if it ends up administering a mild dose of RN in government now, perhaps without an absolute majority, the hope is that it may inoculate French voters against a much more serious dose later, in the shape of Le Pen in the presidency.
马克龙这场赌博的一个不言而喻的部分是预防效果：如果最终在当前政府中注入少量国民联盟，也许不会获得绝对多数，那么希望这可以让法国选民免受日后更大剂量的影响——即勒庞担任总统。
As president, Macron could use his position to call out the excesses of an RN-led government. But what if such a government, with Le Pen’s 28-year-old protégé Jordan Bardella as premier, was to moderate in government, as the hard-right Giorgia Meloni has done in Italy? Populist parties elsewhere have been tamed, to a degree, once faced with responsibilities of power (and Donald Trump showed even a chaotic spell for a populist in power does not prevent voters from wanting more). France’s electorate might then be prepared to entrust Le Pen with the presidency in 2027, without the checks on power that exist in Rome. This makes the risks of the far right in power higher in France than in other European countries.
作为总统，马克龙可以利用自己的地位来斥责以国民联盟为首的政府的过激行为。但是，如果这样一个由勒庞的28岁门徒乔丹•巴尔德拉(Jordan Bardella)担任总理的政府在执政期间变得温和，就像强硬右翼的焦尔贾•梅洛尼(Giorgia Meloni)在意大利所做的那样呢？其他地方的民粹主义政党一旦面临权力责任，多多少少被驯服——唐纳德•特朗普的例子表明，即使民粹主义者执政期间出现混乱，也不会妨碍选民希望获得更多权力。届时，法国的选民可能会准备在2027年委任勒庞担任总统，而不像罗马那样对权力进行制约。这使得极右翼在法国执政的风险高于其他欧洲国家。
Macron has few risk-free options at this stage. Waiting for the clock to tick down on his presidency, while his centrist government lacks a parliamentary majority, would turn him quickly into a lame duck. There is no succession plan. Whoever wants to replace him, from the political centre, will have to rebuild a winning electoral coalition. Nonetheless, precipitating a fresh vote is still a hazardous venture.
在现阶段，马克龙几乎没有无风险的选择。在他的中间派政府缺乏议会多数席位的情况下，等待他的总统任期结束，会让他很快变成一只跛脚鸭。没有继任计划。无论谁想从中间派接替他，都必须重建一个获胜的选举联盟。尽管如此，引发一次新的选举仍然是一次危险的冒险。
The cordon sanitaire is being stretched across Europe, as Sunday’s elections showed. Some nine EU governments have, or will soon have, the hard right inside or in support. France could be the tenth. With war raging in Europe, competitiveness declining and the urgent need to step up the green transition, the EU needs a France that is fully engaged. If Macron’s wager backfires, it may soon have the opposite.
正如周日的选举所显示的那样，防卫圈正在整个欧洲延伸。约有九个欧盟国家的政府内部已经或即将出现强硬右翼势力，或得到他们的支持。法国可能是第十个。在欧洲战火纷飞，竞争力下降，以及迫切需要加强绿色转型的情况下，欧盟需要一个全力以赴的法国。如果马克龙的赌注适得其反，情况可能很快会出现相反的情况。