DeepSeek changes rules of AI’s great game - FT中文网
登录×
电子邮件/用户名
密码
记住我
请输入邮箱和密码进行绑定操作:
请输入手机号码,通过短信验证(目前仅支持中国大陆地区的手机号):
请您阅读我们的用户注册协议隐私权保护政策,点击下方按钮即视为您接受。
FT商学院

DeepSeek changes rules of AI’s great game

Chinese start-up’s breakthrough may be bad news for US tech giants but could be a windfall for everyone else

It’s hard to talk about 21st-century economic history without discussing the “China shock”. That is the term often used to describe China’s entrance into the global market, a change that brought rich countries an abundance of cheap goods, but left entire industries and workforces mothballed.

DeepSeek may provide a sequel. A little-known Chinese hedge fund has thrown a grenade into the world of artificial intelligence with a large language model that, in effect, matches the market leader, Sam Altman’s OpenAI, at a fraction of the cost. And while OpenAI treats its models’ workings as proprietary, DeepSeek’s R1 wears its technical innards on the outside, making it attractive for developers to use and build on.

Things move faster in the AI age; terrifyingly so. Five of the biggest technology stocks geared to AI — chipmaker Nvidia and so-called hyperscalers Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta Platforms — collectively shed almost $750bn of market value before US markets opened on Monday. It could be particularly grim for Nvidia if it proves true that DeepSeek won without the use of its shiniest chips.

Investors in tech companies — including Europeans such as chipmaker ASML, and energy companies that investors hoped would get a boost from fuelling data centres — are left wondering whether their investments will go up in smoke. The hyperscalers were due to plough almost $300bn into capital expenditure this year, according to Visible Alpha estimates. Analysts expect that on Wednesday, when they report earnings, Meta and Microsoft will report investment for 2024 totalling $94bn.

In truth, the game isn’t over. DeepSeek’s actual potential is still unclear, and it has yet to achieve “artificial general intelligence”, the humanlike state that Meta and OpenAI are pursuing. But the rules might have changed. At the very least, DeepSeek may take some of the US giants’ customers. At worst, it has challenged the core belief that more hardware is the key to better AI. That principle has underpinned the market value of Silicon Valley companies as they invest hand over fist.

What’s bad for the hyperscalers could still be a windfall for everyone else. For most business users, having the absolute best model is less important than having one that’s reliable and good enough. Not every driver needs a Ferrari. Advances in reasoning such as R1 could be a big step for “agents” that deal with customers and perform tasks in the workplace. If those are available more cheaply, corporate profitability should rise.

In that sense, this second China shock could resemble the first. It could bring not just destruction but a reshuffling — albeit a painful one for many. Researchers have estimated that for every job lost to the China shock, US households’ purchasing power rose by more than $400,000. The race for AI supremacy is on pause; the great giveaway has begun.

john.foley@ft.com

版权声明:本文版权归FT中文网所有,未经允许任何单位或个人不得转载,复制或以任何其他方式使用本文全部或部分,侵权必究。

喝不起咖啡的巴西人把矛头指向总统卢拉

食品通胀正在影响拉丁美洲最大国家左翼领导人的支持率。

大批民众在葬礼上悼念黎巴嫩真主党领袖纳斯鲁拉

真主党为五个月前在以色列空袭中丧生的领导人举行葬礼,试图展示这个遭受到重创的运动的力量。

宝马暂停在牛津生产电动迷你车的6亿英镑投资计划

在本田、福特和捷豹路虎过去十年关闭英国工厂后,这家德国汽车制造商进行了审查。

一周展望:美联储首选的通胀指标是否会下降?

美国将公布个人消费支出指数;中国香港股市的上涨行情引发关注;欧洲股市的优异表现出人意料。

研究:数据中心相关污染在美国造成54亿美元公共卫生成本

最新研究结果凸显AI基础设施建设热潮带来的日益加剧的环境和健康影响。

全球毕业生面临就业的艰苦斗争

大学毕业生本应从劳动力市场的紧缩中受益。为什么仍有这么多人在找工作?
设置字号×
最小
较小
默认
较大
最大
分享×